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RIO DE JANEIRO -(Dow Jones)- Brazil's foreign trade balance might slip into deficit in 2012 for the 1st time in 12 a long time because of to slowing entire world financial growth, which could weaken 1 of the important pillars powering the power of the Brazilian currency. Decrease commodities rates mean Brazil could get a lot less revenues for its goods, even though at the identical time imports of made products need to rise, as worldwide charges will probable fall because of to shrinking international need. Jose Augusto de Castro, acting president of Brazil's Exporters' Association, or AEB, explained he expects a six% decline in commodities charges subsequent 12 months, which could imply a deficit of $ 5 billion in 2012, in comparison with an expected $ 26 billion surplus this year. "More than 70% of Brazil's exports enterprise is in commodities. And Brazil hasn't the slightest handle about commodities charges or need stages," de Castro explained in an job interview. Most economists are not however expecting such a dramatic turnaround. The newest central financial institution weekly survey of economists exhibits the median of anticipations for the surplus halving subsequent calendar year to $ twelve billion, from $ 23 billion this 12 months. But the likelihood of a deficit is expanding in people's minds. Bret Rosen, Latin American strategist with Regular Chartered Bank, explained there is a chance of a small trade deficit next calendar year. "The robust genuine will continue on to pose a problem to foreign trade," the New York-based mostly strategist said. A vital piece of the jigsaw is iron ore exports, which are the single most significant Brazilian export in advance of soy and oil. Metals commodities such as iron ore could be a whole lot worse hit than foods commodities if the planet drifts toward economic downturn. "Crisis impacts economic exercise ranges but people even now carry on to consume," AEB's de Castro explained. "There are 500 million tons of metal inventories throughout the world: We forecast a reasonable cost fall for iron ore in 2012." Financial development in China should prevent commodities markets slumping in the exact same way they did in late 2008 and early 2009. "China's been the massive driver behind rising prices in the last couple of a long time," stated Bruno Laveiri, economist with Tendencias Consultoria. "Now China's likely to export fewer products to its clientele in the created entire world, so total need for uncooked materials could fall." Brazil's strong domestic market place helps make it much less vulnerable to the world wide slowdown than some Latin American neighbors which includes Mexico and Chile, whose economies are much more open and more dependent on foreign trade, stated Common Chartered's Rosen. Nevertheless, there are nevertheless components that could ease the current crisis, such as feasible new measures from the U.S. Federal Reserve, including the quantitative easing, in accordance to Tendencias. Copyright © 2011 Dow Jones Newswires